America in 2050
From 2000 to 2050, the US. will add another 100 million to its population, putting the country on a growth track far faster than most other major nations in the world. And with that growth—driven by a combination of higher fertility rates and immigration—will come a host of relative economic and social benefits.
More
fertile
The
percentage
of
childless
women is
rising
here as
elsewhere,
but
compared
to other
advanced
countries,
the US
still
boasts
the
highest
fertility
rate: 50
percent
higher
than
Russia,
Germany
or
Japan,
and well
above
that of
China,
Italy,
Singapore,
Korea
and
virtually
all of
eastern
Europe.
As a
result,
while
the US
population
is
growing,
Europe
and
Japan
are
seeing
their
populations
stagnate—and
are
seemingly
destined
to
eventually
decline.
Russia's
population
could be
less
than a
third of
the U.S.
by 2050,
driven
down by
low
birth
and high
mortality
rates.
Prime
Minister
Vladimir
Putin
has
spoken
of "the
serious
threat
of
turning
into a
decaying
nation."
Source: US Census Bureau, International Database.
Fertility is particularly low in highly crowded cities such as Tokyo, Shanghai, Beijing and Seoul. China's one-child policy—and a growing surplus of males over females—has set the stage for a rapidly aging population by mid-century. South Korea has experienced the fastest drop in fertility in world history.
America will expand its population in the midst of a global demographic slowdown. Global population growth rates of 2 percent in the 1960s have dropped to less than half that rate today, and this downward trend is likely to continue—falling to less than 0.8 percent by 2025—largely due to an unanticipated drop in birthrates in developing countries such as Mexico and Iran. These declines are in part the result of increased urbanization, the education of women and higher property prices. World population, according to some estimates, could peak as early as 2050 and begin to fall by the end of the century.
Younger and More Vibrant - Population growth has very different effects on wealthy versus poor nations.
In the developing world, a slowdown of population growth can offer short-term economic and environmental benefits.
In advanced countries, a rapidly aging or decreasing population does not bode well for societal or economic health, whereas a growing population offers the benefits of expanding markets, new workers and entrepreneurial innovation.
Throughout history, low fertility and socioeconomic decline have been inextricably linked, creating a vicious cycle that affected such once-vibrant civilizations as ancient Rome and 17th-century Venice. This phenomenon now affects contemporary Europe, Russia and Japan.
Within four decades (
by 2050), most of the developed countries in both Europe and East Asia will become veritable old-age homes. A third or more of their populations will be older than 65, compared with only a fifth in the United States. By 2050, roughly 30 percent of China's population will be older than 60, according to the UN. The U.S., in relative terms, will maintain a youthful, dynamic demographic.More Hopeful About the Future
In some countries, a sense of diminished prospects, combined with a chronic lack of space, appear to be the root causes for plunging birthrates. As Italians, Germans, Japanese, Koreans and Russians have fewer offspring
—one recent survey found that only half of Italian women 16 to 24 said they wanted to have children—they will have less concern for future generations.In contrast, in the US roughly three-quarters of young people report they plan to have offspring. Such individual decisions suggest that America, for all its problems, is diverging from its prime competitors, placing its faith in a future that can accommodate 100 million more people.
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Million Friends adds, "location, location, location." For over 500 years North America has been blessed with more space, better natural resources, a more defensible location, a better climate, a less polarized ethnic and religious social composition and a better governmental system than any other part of the world.]As author Michael Chabon recently wrote, "In having children, in engendering them, in loving them, in teaching them to love and care about the world," parents are "betting" that life can be better for them and their progeny.
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Million Friends